Other latest reports

Visitors here can find an array of publications related to productivity, competitiveness, quality and economy released by different stakeholders. You may also visit the Archives section for past publications.

Climate Change in the Indian Mind
This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey of adults (18+) in India conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) and the Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVoter). Interview dates: September 5, 2023 – November 1, 2023. Interviews: 2,178 adults. Average margin of error: +/- 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
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International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook April 2024
The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025. The forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1 percent—is at its lowest in decades. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.
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Africa's Impulse - An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future
African Economies Projected to Grow by 3.4 % in 2024, But Faster and More Equitable Growth Needed to Reduce Poverty.
The report underscores that despite the projected boost in growth, the pace of economic expansion in the region remains below the growth rate of the previous decade (2000-2014) and is insufficient to have a significant effect on poverty reduction. Moreover, due to multiple factors including structural inequality, economic growth reduces poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa less than in other regions.
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World Happiness Report 2024
In this issue of the World Happiness Report we focus on the happiness of people at different stages of life. In the seven ages of man in Shakespeare’s As You Like It, the later stages of life are portrayed as deeply depressing. But happiness research shows a more nuanced picture, and one that is changing over time. In the West, the received wisdom was that the young are the happiest and that happiness thereafter declines until middle age, followed by substantial recovery. But since 2006-10, as we shall see, happiness among the young (aged 15-24) has fallen sharply in North America – to a point where the young are less happy than the old. Youth happiness has also fallen (but less sharply) in Western Europe.
By contrast, happiness at every age has risen sharply in Central and Eastern Europe, so that young people are now equally happy in both parts of Europe. In the former Soviet Union and
East Asia too there have been large increases in happiness at every age, while in South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa happiness has fallen at every age.

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Clicl here to download the Mauritius Ranking.

Future of Jobs Report 2023
The Future of Jobs Report 2023 explores how jobs and skills will evolve over the next five years. This fourth edition of the series continues the analysis of employer expectations to provide new insights on how socio-economic and technology trends will shape the workplace of the future.

Key Findings

Economic, health and geopolitical trends have created divergent outcomes for labour markets globally in 2023. While tight labour markets are prevalent in high-income countries, low- and lower-middle-income countries continue to see higher unemployment than before the COVID-19 pandemic. On an individual level, labour-market outcomes are also diverging, as workers with only basic education and women face lower employment levels. At the same time, real wages are declining as a result of an ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and changing worker expectations and concerns about the quality of work are becoming more prominent issues globally.

The fourth edition of the Survey has the widest coverage thus far by topic, geography and sector. The Future of Jobs Survey brings together the perspective of 803 companies – collectively employing more than 11.3 million workers – across 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from all world regions. The Survey covers questions of macrotrends and technology trends, their impact on jobs, their impact on skills, and the workforce transformation strategies businesses plan to use, across the 2023-2027 timeframe.

Technology adoption will remain a key driver of business transformation in the next five years. Over 85% of organizations surveyed identify increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and broadening digital access as the trends most likely to drive transformation in their organization. Broader application of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards within their organizations will also have a significant impact. The next most-impactful trends are macroeconomic: the rising cost of living and slow economic growth. The impact of investments to drive the green transition was judged to be the sixth-most impactful macrotrend, followed by supply shortages and consumer expectations around social and environmental issues. Though still expected to drive the transformation of almost half of companies in the next five years, the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, increased geopolitical divisions and demographic dividends in developing and emerging economies were ranked lower as drivers of business evolution by respondents.

The largest job creation and destruction effects come from environmental, technology and economic trends. Among the macrotrends listed, businesses predict the strongest net job-creation effect to be driven by investments that facilitate the green transition of businesses, the broader application of ESG standards and supply chains becoming more localized, albeit with job growth offset by partial job displacement in each case. Climate change adaptation and the demographic dividend in developing and emerging economies also rate high as net job creators. Technological advancement through increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and increased digital access are expected to drive job growth in more than half of surveyed companies, offset by expected job displacement in one-fifth of companies. The net job creation effect places these two trends in 6th and 8th place respectively. The three key drivers of expected net job destruction are slower economic growth, supply shortages and the rising cost of inputs, and the rising cost of living for consumers. Employers also recognize that increased geopolitical divisions and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will drive labour-market disruption – with an even split between employers who expect these trends to have a positive impact and employers who expect them to have a negative impact on jobs.

Within technology adoption, big data, cloud computing and AI feature highly on likelihood of adoption. More than 75% of companies are looking to adopt these technologies in the next five years. The data also shows the impact of the digitalization of commerce and trade. Digital platforms and apps are the technologies most likely to be adopted by the organizations surveyed, with 86% of companies expecting to incorporate them into their operations in the next five years. E-commerce and digital trade are expected to be adopted by 75% of businesses. The second-ranked technology encompasses education and workforce technologies, with 81% of companies looking to adopt these technologies by 2027. The adoption of robots, power storage technology and distributed ledger technologies rank lower on the list.

The impact of most technologies on jobs is expected to be a net positive over the next five years. Big data analytics, climate change and environmental management technologies, and encryption and cybersecurity are expected to be the biggest drivers of job growth. Agriculture technologies, digital platforms and apps, e-commerce and digital trade, and AI are all expected to result in significant labour-market disruption, with substantial proportions of companies forecasting job displacement in their organizations, offset by job growth elsewhere to result in a net positive. All but two technologies are expected to be net job creators in the next five years: humanoid robots and non-humanoid robots.

Employers anticipate a structural labour market churn of 23% of jobs in the next five years. This can be interpreted as an aggregate measure of disruption, constituting a mixture of emerging jobs added and declining jobs eliminated. Respondents to this year’s Future of Jobs Survey expect a higher-than-average churn in the Supply Chain and Transportation and Media, Entertainment and Sports industries, and lower-than-average churn in Manufacturing as well as Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goods. Of the 673 million jobs reflected in the dataset in this report, respondents expect structural job growth of 69 million jobs and a decline of 83 million jobs. This corresponds to a net decrease of 14 million jobs, or 2% of current employment.

The human-machine frontier has shifted, with businesses introducing automation into their operations at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Organizations today estimate that 34% of all business-related tasks are performed by machines, with the remaining 66% performed by humans. This represents a negligible 1% increase in the level of automation that was estimated by respondents to the 2020 edition of the Future of Jobs Survey. This pace of automation contradicts expectations from 2020 survey respondents that almost half (47%) of business tasks would be automated in the following five years. Today, respondents have revised down their expectations for future automation to predict that 42% of business tasks will be automated by 2027. Task automation in 2027 is expected to vary from 35% of reasoning and decision-making to 65% of information and data processing.

But while expectations of the displacement of physical and manual work by machines has decreased, reasoning, communicating and coordinating – all traits with a comparative advantage for humans – are expected to be more automatable in the future. Artificial intelligence, a key driver of potential algorithmic displacement, is expected to be adopted by nearly 75% of surveyed companies and is expected to lead to high churn – with 50% of organizations expecting it to create job growth and 25% expecting it to create job losses.

The combination of macrotrends and technology adoption will drive specific areas of job growth and decline:

- The fastest-growing roles relative to their size today are driven by technology, digitalization and sustainability. The majority of the fastest growing roles are technology-related roles. AI and Machine Learning Specialists top the list of fast-growing jobs, followed by Sustainability Specialists, Business Intelligence Analysts and Information Security Analysts. Renewable Energy Engineers, and Solar Energy Installation and System Engineers are relatively fast-growing roles, as economies shift towards renewable energy.

- The fastest-declining roles relative to their size today are driven by technology and digitalization. The majority of fastest declining roles are clerical or secretarial roles, with Bank Tellers and Related Clerks, Postal Service Clerks, Cashiers and Ticket Clerks, and Data Entry Clerks expected to decline fastest.

- Large-scale job growth is expected in education, agriculture and digital commerce and trade. Jobs in the Education industry are expected to grow by about 10%, leading to 3 million additional jobs for Vocational Education Teachers and University and Higher education Teachers. Jobs for agricultural professionals, especially Agricultural Equipment Operators, are expected to see an increase of around 30%, leading to an additional 3 million jobs. Growth is forecast in approximately 4 million digitally-enabled roles, such as E-Commerce Specialists, Digital Transformation Specialists, and Digital Marketing and Strategy Specialists.

- The largest losses are expected in administrative roles and in traditional security, factory and commerce roles. Surveyed organizations predict 26 million fewer jobs by 2027 in Record-Keeping and Administrative roles, including Cashiers and Ticket Clerks; Data Entry, Accounting, Bookkeeping and Payroll Clerks; and Administrative and Executive Secretaries, driven mainly by digitalization and automation.

Analytical thinking and creative thinking remain the most important skills for workers in 2023. Analytical thinking is considered a core skill by more companies than any other skill and constitutes, on average, 9% of the core skills reported by companies. Creative thinking, another cognitive skill, ranks second, ahead of three self-efficacy skills – resilience, flexibility and agility; motivation and self-awareness; and curiosity and lifelong learning – in recognition of the importance of workers ability to adapt to disrupted workplaces. Dependability and attention to detail, ranks seventh, behind technological literacy. The core skills top 10 is completed by two attitudes relating to working with others – empathy and active listening and leadership and social influence – as well as quality control.

Employers estimate that 44% of workers’ skills will be disrupted in the next five years. Cognitive skills are reported to be growing in importance most quickly, reflecting the increasing importance of complex problem-solving in the workplace. Surveyed businesses report creative thinking to be growing in importance slightly more rapidly than analytical thinking. Technology literacy is the third-fastest growing core skill. Self-efficacy skills rank above working with others, in the rate of increase in importance of skills reported by businesses. The socio-emotional attitudes which businesses consider to be growing in importance most quickly are curiosity and lifelong learning; resilience, flexibility and agility; and motivation and self-awareness. Systems thinking, AI and big data, talent management, and service orientation and customer service complete the top 10 growing skills. While respondents judged no skills to be in net decline, sizable minorities of companies judge reading, writing and mathematics; global citizenship; sensory-processing abilities; and manual dexterity, endurance and precision to be of declining importance for their workers.

Six in 10 workers will require training before 2027, but only half of workers are seen to have access to adequate training opportunities today. The highest priority for skills training from 2023-2027 is analytical thinking, which is set to account for 10% of training initiatives, on average. The second priority for workforce development is to promote creative thinking, which will be the subject of 8% of upskilling initiatives. Training workers to utilize AI and big data ranks third among company skills-training priorities in the next five years and will be prioritized by 42% of surveyed companies. Employers also plan to focus on developing worker’s skills in leadership and social influence (40% of companies); resilience, flexibility and agility (32%); and curiosity and lifelong learning (30%). Two-thirds of companies expect to see a return on investment on skills training within a year of the investment, whether in the form of enhanced cross-role mobility, increased worker satisfaction or enhanced worker productivity.

The skills that companies report to be increasing in importance the fastest are not always reflected in corporate upskilling strategies. Beyond the top-ranked cognitive skills are two skills which companies prioritize much more highly than would appear according to their current importance to their workforce: AI and big data as well as leadership and social influence. Companies rank AI and big data 12 places higher in their skills strategies than in their evaluation of core skills, and report that they will invest an estimated 9% of their reskilling efforts in it – a greater proportion than the more highly-ranked creative thinking, indicating that though AI and big data is part of fewer strategies, it tends to be a more important element when it is included. Leadership and social influence ranks five places higher than suggested by its current importance and is the highest ranked attitude. Other skills which are strategically emphasized by business are design and user experience (nine places higher), environmental stewardship (10 places higher), marketing and media (six places higher) and networks and cybersecurity (five places higher).

Respondents express confidence in developing their existing workforce, however, they are less optimistic regarding the outlook for talent availability in the next five years. Accordingly, organizations identify skills gaps and an inability to attract talent as the key barriers preventing industry transformation. In response 48% of companies identify improving talent progression and promotion processes as a key business practice that can increase the availability of talent to their organization, ahead of offering higher wages (36%) and offering effective reskilling and upskilling (34%).

Surveyed companies report that investing in learning and on-the-job training and automating processes are the most common workforce strategies which will be adopted to deliver their organizations’ business goals. Four in five respondents expect to implement these strategies in the next five years. Workforce development is most commonly considered to be the responsibility of workers and managers, with 27% of training expected to be furnished by on-the-job training and coaching, ahead of the 23% by internal training departments and the 16% by employer-sponsored apprenticeships. To close skills gaps, respondents expect to reject external training solutions in favour of company-led initiatives.

A majority of companies will prioritize women (79%), youth under 25 (68%) and those with disabilities (51%) as part of their DEI programmes. A minority will prioritize those from a disadvantaged religious, ethnic or racial background (39%), workers over age 55 (36%), those who identify as LGBTQI+ (35%) and those from a low-income background (33%).

Forty-five percent of businesses see funding for skills training as an effective intervention available to governments seeking to connect talent to employment. Funding for skills training ranks ahead of flexibility on hiring and firing practices (33%), tax and other incentives for companies to improve wages (33%), improvements to school systems (31%) and changes to immigration laws on foreign talent (28%).

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Human Development Report 2023/ 2024
The 2023/24 Human Development Report assesses the dangerous gridlock resulting from uneven development progress, intensifying inequality, and escalating political polarization, that we must urgently tackle. The report emphasizes how global interdependence is being reconfigured and proposes a path forward where multilateralism plays a pivotal role.
Mauritius's HDI value for 2022 is 0.796— which put the country in the High human development category—positioning it at 72 out of 193 countries and territories.

Between 1990 and 2022, Mauritius's HDI value changed from 0.620 to 0.796, an change of 28.4 percent.

Between 1990 and 2022, Mauritius's life expectancy at birth changed by 4.6 years, expected years of schooling changed by 4.6 years and mean years of schooling changed by 4.1 years. Mauritius's GNI per capita changed by about 184.4 percent between 1990 and 2022.

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Inclusive Productivity: Engaging the Youth
With the increasing vulnerability of global youth employment, it is urgent to reengage young people in the labor force. APO member economies with a youth bulge or an aged society must aim to engage the youth to increase available labor and improve labor productivity for sustainable development. In this report, Dr. Akira Murata highlights two determinants of inclusive productivity and introduces effective policy initiatives to enhance youth participation in productive economic activities.

POLICY INITIATIVES
Based on the latest good practices of some projects for improving the volume of youth employment in Japan, the following three types of policy initiative are important: 1) (re)skilling; 2) developing AI literacy; and 3) sharing knowledge. Policy Initiative

1: (Re)skilling Some young people can acquire high levels of digital technology skills (e.g., programming and data analysis) on their own, but others cannot. Thus, it is important to equip those young people with basic knowledge of AI and the IoT, particularly DX and AI planning. AI planning helps specify and understand project aims and purposes. Policy Initiative

2: Developing AI Literacy At the university level, a curriculum for AI and data science classes was newly established. However, in Japan today, the quality of education may not sufficiently meet the needs of industry. Teacher training to improve AI literacy is a priority at the primary and secondary education levels. Policy Initiative

3: Sharing Knowledge The speed of the industrial transformation, including DX, is rapid and requires spaces to share good practices, like online knowledge hubs or libraries. It is essential to continuously share knowledge through platforms like the Productivity Talks organized by the APO.
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World Economic Outlook Update January 2024
Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down.
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The Future of Growth Report 2024
Global growth has been slower in the past decade compared to previous ones, and the post-pandemic recovery is losing momentum. Between 2018 and 2023 – on average – high-income economies’ GDP (in purchasing-power-parity terms) grew by 1.4% annually across economies featured in the report, by 2.2% across upper-middle income economies, by 3.1% across lower-middle income economies, and by 3.1% across low-income economies. Total global GDP today is higher than its pre-pandemic level, but growth rates in 2023 remain below 4% across all income groups.

This conventional GDP growth picture is incomplete without a deeper understanding of the underlying nature and quality of growth, and whether it is in synergy with global and national priorities. The question is not whether the world still needs economic growth, but how the growth can be better aligned with other important priorities. This report provides a framework for looking at growth in the context of its quality and serves as a starting point for the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative.

Framework overview– The Future of Growth Framework introduces a multidimensional approach that focuses on evaluating the quality of growth and the balance between various priorities rather than aggregating them into a single index. It is grounded in four pillars that assess the quality of growth: Innovativeness, Inclusiveness, Sustainability and Resilience.

Global analysis
The report reveals that most countries continue to grow in ways that are neither sustainable nor inclusive and are limited in their ability to absorb or generate innovation and minimize their contribution and susceptibility to global shocks.

The inclusiveness pillar, which measures the extent to which an economy’s trajectory includes all stakeholders in the benefits and opportunities it creates, and the resilience dimension, which captures the extent to which an economy’s trajectory can withstand and bounce back from shocks, have the highest global average scores, 55.9 out of 100 and 52.8 out of 100, respectively.

Meanwhile, the global average of the sustainability dimension, which measures the extent to which an economy’s trajectory can keep its ecological footprint within finite environmental boundaries, is 46.8 out of 100. The innovativeness dimension – which captures the extent to which an economy’s trajectory can absorb and evolve in response to new technological, social, institutional and organizational developments to improve the longer-term quality of growth – attains the lowest global score, with a global average of 45.2 out of 100.

Country-level analysis
At an individual level, none of the 107 economies covered by the report have attained a score higher than 80 on any of the framework’s four dimensions. The report provides country-level data that allows policy-makers to assess the character and nature of a country’s economic growth and identify potential areas for improvement and synergies.

High income economies, with an average GDP of $52,475 per capita (at purchasing power parity) in 2023, saw average annual GDP per capita growth of 1.01% over the past five years, 2018-2023. Their growth pathway is generally characterized by high scores on inclusiveness (68.9), innovativeness (59.4) and resilience (61.9), but room to improve on sustainability (45.8).

Countries in this group include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. Notable high scores include Switzerland (80.4), Singapore (76.4) and the United States (74.1) on innovativeness; Finland (77.7) and Canada (75.8) on inclusiveness; Sweden (60.9), Germany (56.3) and the United Kingdom (54.0) on sustainability; and Australia (69.5) and Japan (66.3) on resilience.

Common challenges preventing a stronger balanced growth performance of this group include talent availability, access to equal workplace opportunities, slow development and adoption of green technologies, and insufficient reskilling and lifelong learning.

Upper middle-income economies, with an average GDP of $17,900 per capita in 2023, saw average annual GDP per capita growth of 1.32% over the past five years. Their growth pathway generally features a relatively high emphasis on inclusiveness (54.8) and resilience (50.0), with room to improve on sustainability (44.0) and innovativeness (39.3).

Countries in this group include Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and Türkiye. Notable high scores include Malaysia (52.3) and South Africa (44.1) on innovativeness; Brazil (56.0) and Costa Rica (48.8) on sustainability; and Indonesia (57.9) on resilience.

Common challenges preventing a stronger balanced growth performance of this group include research capacity, wealth and income inequality, high non-renewable energy intensity and waste production, and financial stability.

Lower middle-income economies, with an average GDP of $7,633 per capita in 2023, saw average annual GDP per capita growth of 1.95% over the past five years. Their growth pathway has generally been focused on resilience (45.8), with higher scores on sustainability (50.0) than richer economies but room to improve on inclusiveness (44.8) and innovativeness (34.9).

Countries in this group include Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Notable high scores include Jordan (45.1) on innovativeness; Viet Nam (56.2) on inclusiveness; Kenya (57.2) and India (56.0) on sustainability; and the Philippines (54.1) on resilience.

Common challenges preventing a stronger balanced growth performance of this group include technology absorption, lack of social safety nets, insufficient investment in renewable energy and insufficient healthcare system capacity.

Low-income economies, with an average GDP of $1,533 per capita in 2023, saw average annual GDP per capita growth of just 0.22% over the past five years. Their growth pathway is generally characterized by a much lighter environmental footprint per capita – resulting in a high sustainability performance (52.7) – but with room to improve on resilience (39.0), inclusiveness (29.9) and innovativeness (26.8).

Notably high scores are achieved by Rwanda, with a particularly strong emphasis on resilience (52.8). Common challenges preventing a stronger balanced growth performance of this group include ICT capital and connectivity, access to connectivity and healthy nutrition, insufficient environmental regulation and insufficient energy source diversification.

Mauritius
Archetype D is comprised of two sub-types, characterized by above-average performance on the Innovativeness, Inclusiveness and Resilience pillars, and notably lower scores on the Sustainability pillar. In general, the archetype features countries with strong economic fundamentals at different stages of transition towards more innovative, inclusive, and resilient growth models. Countries in the second sub-type – Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Ireland and Serbia – are characterized by particularly strong GDP per-capita growth rates, averaging 4.8% over the past five years. Growth rates are more modest for the archetype’s first sub-type (0.9%), characteristic of countries including Cyprus, Malta, Mauritius, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay.

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The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024
This World Economic Forum report, written in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, measures the current state of global cooperation. It is meant to serve as a tool for leaders to better understand the contours of cooperation broadly and along five pillars – trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security.
It is no secret that the current global context is concerning, as heightened competition and conflict appear to be replacing cooperation. The result is that new power dynamics, changing demographic realities and breakthrough frontier technologies are raising the temperature on long-simmering distrust rather than fueling opportunities for benefit. Businesses are responding to these complicated – and often fraught – geopolitical developments by shifting operations and facilities closer to home.
This report, therefore, aims to help business and government stakeholders gain a better understanding of the nature of cooperation to shape a healthier and more prosperous and sustainable world in the year ahead and beyond.
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World Economic Forum Chief Economists Outlook January 2024
This latest edition of the Chief Economists Outlook launches amid protracted weakness in global economic conditions and widening regional divergences. Uncertainty that dominated the outlook over the last year continues to cloud the near-term economic outlook as the global economy grapples with headwinds from tight financial conditions and geopolitical rifts while adapting to rapid advancements in generative AI. Although the results reveal signs of cautious optimism, including easing of inflationary pressures and AI-enabled productivity benefits, growth momentum remains tepid, and majority expects the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation to accelerate this year.

Regional variations
The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific remains positive and broadly unchanged compared to the last survey, with a strong majority (93% and 86% respectively) expecting at least moderate growth in 2024. China is an exception, with a smaller majority (69%) expecting moderate growth as weak consumption, lower industrial production and property market concerns weigh on the prospects of a stronger rebound.
In Europe, the outlook has weakened significantly since the September 2023 survey, with the share of respondents expecting weak or very weak growth almost doubling to 77%. In the United States and the Middle East and North Africa, the outlook is weaker too, with about six in 10 respondents foreseeing moderate or stronger growth this year (down from 78% and 79% respectively). There is a notable uptick in growth expectations for Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, although the views remain for broadly moderate growth.

Geopolitical rifts compound uncertainty
About seven in 10 chief economists expect the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation to accelerate this year, with a majority saying geopolitics will stoke volatility in the global economy (87%) and stock markets (80%), increase localization (86%), strengthen geoeconomic blocs (80%) and widen the North-South divide (57%) in the next three years.
As governments increasingly experiment with industrial policy tools, experts are nearly unanimous in expecting these policies to remain largely uncoordinated between countries. While two-thirds of chief economists expect industrial policies to enable the emergence of new economic growth hotspots and vital new industries, a majority also warn of rising fiscal strains (79%) and divergence between higher- and lower-income economies (66%).
AI takes the spotlight

Chief economists expect AI-enabled benefits to vary widely across income groups, with notably more optimistic views about the effects in high-income economies. A strong majority said generative AI will increase efficiency of output production (79%) and innovation (74%) in high-income economies this year. Looking at the next five years, 94% expect these productivity benefits to become economically significant in high-income economies, compared to only 53% for low-income economies.
Almost three-quarters (73%) do not foresee net-positive impact on employment in low-income economies and 47% said the same for high-income economies. The views are somewhat more divided on the likelihood of generative AI to increase standards of living and to lead to a decline in trust, with both being slightly more likely in high-income markets.
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Consumer Price Index December 2023
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1 point or 0.1% from 131.9 in November 2023 to 132.0 in December 2023. The main contributors to the change in the index between November 2023 and December 2023.
Year-on-year (Y-o-y) inflation worked out to 3.9% in December 2023, compared to 12.2% in December 2022. Headline inflation for the 12-months ending December 2023 worked out to 7.0%, compared to 10.8% for the 12-months ending December 2022.
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ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook Trends: 2024 (WESO Trends)
Joblessness and the jobs gap have both fallen below pre-pandemic levels but global unemployment will rise in 2024, and growing inequalities and stagnant productivity are causes for concern, according to the ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 report.

The 2023 global unemployment rate stood at 5.1 per cent, a modest improvement from 2022 when it stood at 5.3 per cent. The global jobs gap and labour market participation rates also improved in 2023.However, beneath these numbers fragility is starting to emerge, the report finds. It projects that the labour market outlook and global unemployment will both worsen. In 2024 an extra two million workers are expected to be looking for jobs, raising the global unemployment rate from 5.1 per cent in 2023 to 5.2 per cent. Disposable incomes have declined in the majority of G20 countries and, generally, the erosion of living standards resulting from inflation is, “unlikely to be compensated quickly”.

Furthermore, important differences persist between higher and lower income countries. While the jobs gap rate in 2023 was 8.2 per cent in high-income countries, it stood at 20.5 per cent in the low-income group. Similarly, while the 2023 unemployment rate persisted at 4.5 per cent in high-income countries, it was 5.7 per cent in low-income countries.

Moreover, working poverty is likely to persist. Despite quickly declining after 2020, the number of workers living in extreme poverty (earning less than US$2.15 per person per day in purchasing power parity terms) grew by about 1 million in 2023. the number of workers living in moderate poverty (earning less than US$3.65 per day per person in PPP terms) increased by 8.4 million in 2023.

Income inequality has also widened, the WESO Trends warns, adding that the erosion of real disposable income, “bodes ill for aggregate demand and a more sustained economic recovery.”
Rates of informal work are expected to remain static, accounting for around 58 per cent of the global workforce in 2024.

Labour market imbalances
The return to pre-pandemic labour market participation rates has varied between different groups. Women's participation has bounced back quickly, but a notable gender gap still persists, especially in emerging and developing nations. Youth unemployment rates continue to present a challenge. The rate of people defined as NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) remains high, especially among young women, posing challenges for long-term employment prospects.
The report also found that those people who have re-entered the labour market post-pandemic tend not to be working the same number of hours as before while the number of sick days taken has increased significantly.

Productivity growth slowed
After a brief post-pandemic boost labour productivity has returned to the low level seen in the previous decade. Importantly, the report also finds that despite technological advances and increased investment, productivity growth has continued to slow. One reason for this is that significant amounts of investment were directed towards less productive sectors such as services and construction. Other barriers include skills shortages and the dominance of large digital monopolies, which hinders faster technological adoption, especially in developing countries and sectors with a predominance of low productivity firms.

Outlook uncertain
"This report looks behind the headline labour market figures and what it reveals must give great cause for concern. It is starting to look as if these imbalances are not simply part of pandemic recovery but structural,” said ILO Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo. “The workforce challenges it detects pose a threat to both individual livelihoods and businesses and it is essential that we tackle them effectively and fast. Falling living standards and weak productivity combined with persistent inflation create the conditions for greater inequality and undermine efforts to achieve social justice. And without greater social justice we will never have a sustainable recovery”.
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World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024
The Global Risks Report explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conflict. As cooperation comes under pressure, weakened economies and societies may only require the smallest shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience.


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